The WalkConditional probability, made into steps you actually take.
A probability is not a property of the world. It is a property of the world
given a path. Ten percent now, because of how people expect decisions will be made — but
at 100% power and 0% alignment the ten becomes something else, and at 100% alignment before the
power grows it becomes something else again. Allocate, step, and watch which number moves, and
why. Nothing is sent anywhere; the walk lives in the address bar.
1Drag Power to the right. The big number above moves. The world did not change; the path did.
2Press Step. That is a year or so, walked with this allocation.
3Read what changed, in words, under the number. Then keep walking, or move a slider and walk somewhere else.
The allocation — it always sums to 100%
The Horizon — where this walk ends
These numbers are a teaching instrument, not a forecast.
Every prior below is yours to change.
A card at 0% is not broken: it is not on this path. The allocation
decides where you are going; chance decides whether you arrive. Move a slider and the
destination itself changes.
Where the walk stands
Capability
Coordination
Alignment before capability
Sustainability before capability
The same ratio, for sustainability. Past the same bar, the walk turns.
What changed
Priors — every constant the walk depends on, and not one of them a measurement